Why Kalen DeBoer Will Win Big At Alabama
Everyone knows where they were on January 10th when they learned Nick Saban was retiring. It was a day every Alabama football fan had feared for quite some time, yet it felt like we were still several years away from the end of the Saban era. Without a doubt, the greatest coach in college football history, you don't simply replace Nick Saban. For about ten years, I feel like every Alabama fan has played this game of guessing who the next coach at Alabama would be when Nick Saban retires. Ten years ago many people thought I was nuts for suggesting it could be Lane Kiffin. Now many of those same people would love to have seen Kiffin replace Saban. About a year or two ago, when it became apparent that most Alabama fans wouldn't want Dabo Sweeney, and Clemson had started regressing to little ol' Clemson of old, I gave up on the guessing game and concluded that the next coach was a lot like who Ted Mosby was going to marry on How I Met Your Mother - it was a character we simply hadn't been introduced to yet.
It's 2022 and Alabama loses to LSU on an overtime two-point conversion in Tiger Stadium. It's the typical kind of loss of the Saban era- one in the dramatic fashion where everyone rushes the field at the end of the game on some crazy, improbable ending. Never mind the fact that the game probably wouldn't have even been close if Bryce Young had thrown a touchdown instead of an interception in the end zone on the first drive of the game. I digress. You get used to it. All I can think about now is how this team is one of the best teams Saban has ever had and they are one of the four best teams - but NOT one of the four most deserving teams. I immediately start looking for crazy scenarios that need to happen for Alabama to make the playoffs. The first on that list? Oregon needs to lose at home to Washington on the following weekend. It'll never happen, I can't help but think. But we need the Pac-12 to be eliminated, so I tune in. After a back-and-forth battle, Oregon goes up by 7 with less than four minutes to go. In just a couple of plays that take less than a minute off the clock, Washington quickly responds with a touchdown to tie the game up. Wasn't this team awful last year? Yep, they went 4-8 and finished the year miserably before hiring a new coach. Interesting. Washington's defense gets a quick stop and then gets a last-second field goal to finish off the upset. Oregon is out of the picture. That was my first glimpse of Kalen DeBoer. (And, wouldn't you know it, every other team that needed to lose in my scenario for Alabama to make the playoff DID lose but they still let TCU in any way. What an abomination!)
Fast forward a couple of months - a few days after Christmas. I'm casually watching the Holiday Bowl between Washington and Texas. I picked Washington over the favored Longhorns just because I thought Washington had finished the year strong and wanted to be there more. I was also impressed that their new coach (DeBoer) didn't have a single player opt out of the bowl game. I knew if they could play with Oregon in Eugene then they should have no problem in San Antonio with a Texas team that still angered me for not taking care of TCU at home in Austin. Texas looked terrible against TCU and probably cost Alabama a shot at getting in the playoffs. I didn't know that much about Washington going into the game, but I was blown away by how they dominated Texas up front. Texas could not run the ball at all. I had to go back and look at the stats: Texas' longest running play of the night went for 7 yards. Even though the final score was only a 7-point difference, Washington was up by double digits most of the game and in complete control. Washington is pretty good, I thought.
September 9, 2023: Auburn is playing Cal in Berkley. Anyone who remembers that game last season will remember one thing about it - it was LATE. I mean LATE. I was able to watch Alabama play their worst game of the season against Texas that night and still had time to watch Auburn and Cal play after. The first half consisted of Cal driving down the field and repeatedly failing to score in every imaginable way. While the game was still close at halftime, I thought Auburn had no chance of actually winning this game, so I went to bed. Of course, Auburn being Auburn, I awoke to the news that Auburn had once again stolen another game it had no business winning off of their opponents' numerous mistakes.
Just two weeks later Alabama's football season turned a corner in the second half against Ole Miss. I finally believe again. That evening, I'm watching Washington and Cal play. It's mostly in the background, and I'm only halfway paying attention. I remember how stout Cal’s defense was against Auburn. Washington is destroying them 45-12 at halftime. Who is their coach? I look up Kalen DeBoer and spend half an hour reading about him. Holy sh-t. Does this guy know how to lose? I am convinced he is the next superstar coach in college football. I can't help myself. I find 25-1 odds on Washington to win the National Championship. When you see those odds you just take them. This guy is a winner.
After placing a bet on DeBoer's Washington team, I follow them a lot more closely. A month later they play undefeated Oregon in front of College Gameday and the rest of the country. Most probably assume Oregon is going to win, but Washington prevails. Could he replace Nick Saban one day? Nah, people will think I'm crazy suggesting something random like this. But I am a big fan of DeBoer at this point. And so is Alabama AD Greg Byrne. Then Washington proceeds to take out the entire Pac-12 and run the table. Their reward? They have to face Oregon again in a winner-take-all game to advance to the CFP. Most pundits believe Oregon is going to win, and they enter as a 9.5-point favorite. It's hard to beat a team twice. Especially when the perception is that the team that lost the first time is better (2011 Bama-LSU). Of course, it didn't matter because Washington withstood a late rally to take down Oregon once again in the fourth quarter. For the third time in just over thirteen months, Kalen DeBoer had beaten an Oregon team that had more talent. He did it at home, on the road, and at a neutral site. Wow. This guy is good.
Most everyone knows how the story goes from here. Washington traveled across the country and took down a Texas team that created another home away from home in New Orleans. Then Washington went into the National Championship game and got flattened by a team that was just more talented. There is no other way to put it. Michigan was LOADED up front, and Washington was completely dominated by the same defense that had harassed Jalen Milroe in the Rose Bowl. This wasn’t even indicative of how much better Michigan was. It’s a miracle Washington kept it close. And this is probably one of the main reasons Kalen DeBoer didn't hesitate to take the Alabama football job. He is going to have something he didn't have at Washington - elite talent. Talent that only a handful of teams possess. When comparing the most talented teams in college football, this list isn't long: Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and that's it. We're splitting hairs over what the second tier of talent looks like in college football and we could name another dozen teams, but they pale in comparison to the big three.
As excited as I was to see DeBoer take the job, there was one major question mark that remained about DeBoer that could only be answered with time: can he recruit? After losing more players to the portal than any other team following Saban’s abrupt retirement, DeBoer had a tall task at hand. For starters, he had to convince the core nucleus of this talented young team to stay. Seeing key players such as Milroe and Tyler Booker immediately come out and support DeBoer was a positive first sign. DeBoer did an excellent job of stopping the bleeding, but could he land top talent on the recruiting trail with national signing day less than a month away?
Ryan Williams is one of the most highly coveted recruits to come out of Alabama in recent memory. He is the first player to be named Mr. Football TWICE - for his sophomore AND junior seasons. His senior season? Williams opted to skip his senior season and enroll a year early. That’s some Bryce Harper-level stuff. Shortly after Saban announced his retirement, Williams decommitted from Alabama. This news hurt but didn’t come as a complete shock. Any player leaving Alabama under these circumstances wouldn’t come as a surprise; this was uncharted waters for the program. Can DeBoer recruit? The question loomed even larger.
After another campus visit, this time to see DeBoer, Williams would recommit back to Alabama and recruit others to join him. DeBoer was able to hold on to most of the highest-rated players in the nation on his roster. Five years ago this wouldn’t be a big deal and it would be easy to give all of the credit to Saban, but in the age of NIL and the transfer portal, coaches not only have to recruit new players but also retain existing ones. DeBoer’s efforts should be lauded. DeBoer was also able to pick up several other players out of the portal that filled critical holes on the offense line, secondary, and in the kicking game. And since the summer started, DeBoer has been hard at work earning multiple commitments from elite talent from not just the south but across the nation - something Saban has always excelled at. Deboer’s first full recruiting class for 2025 is currently ranked #1 in the SEC and behind only Ohio State and Notre Dame nationally. Yes, it is early, but this looks like a Saban recruiting class.
I'm going to hit you with a pretty wild stat. Entering 2023, Knute Rockne had the highest college football winning percentage of all time at 88.1% (105-12-5). Guess who is number one if you count his record below the FBS level? Yep, it's DeBoer, who currently boasts a winning percentage of 89.6%.
We've seen that DeBoer can win and recruit, two of the biggest requisites for success at the highest level. Now for the last piece of the puzzle, something I think many people have misunderstood about DeBoer after being led by Saban for so long. Culture. It's one thing to sustain success for a brief period. Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, and Dabo Swinney all had miniruns. But what each of them may have lacked in one or more ways is what made Saban excel and dominate for so long: his attention to a detailed process that didn't have off days, a tireless work ethic that was never satisfied, and the understanding that doing things the right way was non-negotiable. The biggest obstacle any replacement at Alabama would have to deal with is following in his footsteps. It's cliche but completely true.
I believe some see DeBoer as struggling because he isn't Saban and because his culture is the complete opposite of Saban's. That's a fair question to raise, but I couldn't disagree more with it. Pete Carrol took a similarly laid-back approach at USC that only blew up when Reggie Bush's impermissible benefits led to the program going on probation (which has since been reinstated). Before there was Nick Saban at Alabama, there was Pete Carroll at USC. And the Trojans were something to behold as well. For about four years, USC was a lot like Saban's Bama - you weren't better than them, you just had to pray they beat themselves. And no, the SEC wasn't as dominant in the early 2000s as it is now. Ask Auburn.
Steve Jobs built Apple into the largest company in the world with a Saban-like approach to leadership. "He was famously impatient, petulant, and tough with the people around him". There is no denying that Jobs' methods, while not always popular, were wildly effective. Alabama fans would say the same thing about Saban, and it is what has made him indisputably the greatest college football coach of all time. Now I'm going to give you another example using a company everyone is familiar with: Netflix. Reed Hastings is personally my favorite CEO because he has built Netflix from a mail-in DVD company to the most powerful and dominant streaming company in the industry. He built his company from the ground up and has constantly evolved, being many steps ahead of the competition at all times. His management style is well-documented as being wildly successful for its laissez-faire approach to letting employees be their creative selves. Everyone knows about Saban's process. Let me introduce you to Reed Hastings Culture Deck. Many fans have this belief that the Saban/Belichick style is the only way to be successful, but it just isn't true (see Andy Reid for more on that).
When I hear Kalen DeBoer speak, I think of Reed Hastings. When asked about his style, DeBoer will talk about how he is not a big screamer or in-your-face guy and how players and coaches all have the same common goal of being successful. He believes his job is to help them be their best selves, and he is not going to change who he is for who we think he needs to be. I would argue that this sort of style might even be more effective in today's society versus the old-school approach we've seen from so many coaches. All kids aren't necessarily softer, society has simply evolved. Everyone has an opinion of what that is, but I am trying to be objective here - I believe that DeBoer's style is ideal for coaching a college football team in the face of the transfer portal, NIL, and society at this day in time. I am not here to compare one style to another as being more effective, I am merely saying that both can be highly successful in their own way.
The last argument about DeBoer's scheme not working in the SEC is more ridiculous than the claim that Urban Meyer's style wouldn't translate from Utah to Florida. In fact, DeBoer beat the same Texas teams that beat Alabama in 2023 and almost beat Alabama in 2022.
Here's another incredible stat: against the likes of three big-name coaches Dan Lanning, Lincoln Riley, and Steve Sarkisian, DeBoer is an amazing 7-0 and he is a dominant 12-2 against ranked opponents. Kirby Smart has already been anointed as the only one who can sustain success in the post-Saban era, which is the safest bet for obvious reasons, but I like DeBoer’s chances. And while Smart has clearly accomplished more so far, and is now the top coach in College Football by default, let's see where the chips fall when the two face off several times over the next few years. Kirby Smart could never conquer his mentor and DeBoer has thrived against other top coaches. Will Kirby Smart continue to come up short against Alabama? It’s certainly plausible, and it would only take one good season for Alabama fans to feel confident that they still own the Bulldogs - even without Saban running the show.
When Bear Bryant died, everyone said there would never be another. His track record spoke for itself, and it was sacrilegious to say someone would accomplish more than him. As a kid in the 90s, I can remember so many people saying there would never be another Bear Bryant. Then Nick Saban came along and surpassed him, leaving no doubt in the process. I'm not saying DeBoer will do the same - but you never say never. Larry Coker, Les Miles, Gene Chizik, and Ed Orgeron are all average coaches who have won national championships this century after stepping into a great situation. The rest of college football better buckle up because none of them are in Kalen DeBoer's league.
