No, Georgia has not surpassed Alabama
For a very brief period of time, it looked like Clemson had surpassed Alabama. After giving Alabama its only beatdown of the Nick Saban era and winning the national title in 2018, many wondered if Clemson had become the preeminent power in college football. From 2015 to 2018, Alabama and Clemson met four straight times in the playoffs and alternated wins each year. Each won two national titles during this span. However, Clemson had won the two most recent national championship meetings (2016 and 2018) and put an exclamation point on the 2018 National Championship game with a 44-16 beatdown that not even Clemson fans expected. For Alabama fans, it felt like everything was on the line in 2019.
Yet, out of nowhere, LSU emerged and denied Alabama its sixth straight CFP appearance and fifth straight meeting with Clemson. Despite the rivalry, most Alabama fans will probably tell you they wanted LSU (a one-hit wonder) to knock off Clemson so they could extend their claim to a dynasty. While LSU won, it was once again Clemson that played for a national title - not Alabama. In the offseason, Paul Finebaum declared that Clemson had surpassed Alabama as the dominant program in College Football. We might laugh now, but he, and many others, may have had a point at the time. Fortunately for the Tide, Clemson was upset by Ohio State in the 2020 semifinals while Alabama had one of the greatest seasons in college football history. In 2021, Clemson fell apart and even dropped out of the top 25 at one point. While Clemson became a distant memory, struggling to win the Cheez-It bowl over a 7-5 Iowa State team, Bryce Young ran away with the Heisman and Alabama once again entered the playoffs as the team to beat.
In the second quarter of the national championship game last year, while on its way to a fifth straight win over Kirby Smart’s Georgia team, Alabama lost its second dynamic playmaker in as many games to a freak knee injury. From there, the offense sputtered, and Georgia finally conquered Alabama. However, it takes multiple titles and staying power to make a dynasty claim. After Georgia pounds TCU, the dynasty drum will beat louder. In fact, we’re already hearing it. Get ready for more. There’s no way around it, this is going to be a long off-season for the pride of Alabama fans.
Here’s the reality: Georga beating TCU on Monday by any margin will not displace Alabama as the preeminent power in college football. Here are five reasons why:
Teams still say “we want Bama.” Why? Because for 15 years Alabama has been #1 at some point in the season. That might be the most impressive team statistic in the history of College Football. Until Alabama falls out of contention, every college football fan over the age of ten has a recent memory of nothing but dominance from Alabama under Nick Saban.
When Alabama loses, it is almost always in spectacular fashion. With the exception of the Clemson game in 2018, every loss Alabama has had under Nick Saban has had a memorable, generational play that everyone can remember as though we were all there in person. It’s incredible. Just remarkable. Seriously, watch the video. Teams don’t just show up and beat Alabama then go home. They rush the field and tear down goalposts. When teams stop rushing the field after beating Alabama, we can talk about how the dynasty is dead.
Georgia has only beaten Alabama once. And say what you want, but if Jameson Williams doesn’t get hurt, Alabama doesn’t lose that game. Fact. Do players get hurt? Yes, it is a part of it. (Marvin Harrison, Jr… ah, never mind.) Alabama stole a national title in 2009 due to Colt McCoy getting hurt. I’ll give you that. Just give me 2021 in return. Even with the win last year, Kirby Smart is 1-4 against Nick Saban. Is that the look of the more dominant program?
Georgia didn’t have to play Alabama in 2022. We can debate who would have won, and you can counter by saying that this isn’t Georgia’s fault that Alabama lost a game to LSU that it had no business losing. All true, but if you want to be the best you have to beat the best. (Remember, this whole debate is subjective.) If Georgia wants to say they’ve passed Alabama. . . they need to beat them again.
Georgia needs more staying power. After losing (choking?) the national championship in 2017, Georgia missed the playoffs altogether each season until last year. Part of being the team to beat is always being there at the end. Georgia had also lost three straight SEC Championship games before beating a historically-weak SEC West foe this season in LSU. Nick Saban hasn’t lost an SECCG since his second season at Alabama in 2008, and he has won six of the last nine conference titles. That’s staying power.
After the Bulldogs repeat as National Champs, the dynasty debate will be narrow. The closest it’s ever been since Clemson was in the picture. And with the SEC East as weak as it has been, you get this feeling, as we had with Clemson, that there is no way to keep Georgia out of the College Football Playoff. For the past two seasons, we’ve been told that Georgia is in the playoffs even with a loss in the SEC Championship game. Are they going anywhere anytime soon? No, almost certainly not. Of course, we said the same with Clemson. Maybe Tennessee will continue to grow into an elite contender and make their road a little more difficult. Even with a loss to Tennessee next year, it is very hard to see Georgia not being in the mix. This little narrow window in history just might give Georgia a statistical edge, but subjectively, they are still not the team to beat. That might change in a few years, but it doesn’t happen overnight - or in just 13 months.
In 2024, all of this will change with the college football playoff expanding because Alabama and Georgia will both be in the playoffs every year. And it will be settled on the field. And all those spectacular road losses that Alabama has gotten over the years during the regular season won’t be able to keep them out of the playoffs. To be the best, Georgia will have to beat the best.