No, America Isn’t Finished. Not Even Close.

History buffs love to draw parallels. They love to talk about the fall of Napoleon, the Romans, and the British Empire. They love to talk about all the similarities that America has with many of these dynasties that are as big of a has-been as the New England Patriots are now sans Belichick and Brady. Especially with an election coming up. Oh, boy, how an election reignites these sentiments! Did you know that if one of these candidates is elected, America as we know it is finished? Which candidate is it? Well, that depends on who you ask and where you align politically.

We’ve heard this story before. In 2008, we were finished when Barack Obama was elected as president. Completely done. And 2012? It served as the final nail in the coffin when we reelected Obama right before the Mayan calendar ended. 2016? Donald Trump had his hands all over the nuclear codes and was going to completely end humanity as we knew it for his own selfish reasons. Okay, so we managed to survive these two polar opposites that collectively triggered 98% of the population at some point in some way… Surely if we elected a complete figurehead, as we did in 2020, our enemies would pounce on the opportunity to put us six feet under? Well, we’re still waiting on that one too.

It is true, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 under Biden, which might not have happened under Trump (we’ll never know for sure, but I think it’s considerably moot at this point). However, Russia has shown just how far behind the U.S. they really are over the past two years with their inability to sustain any significant success in Ukraine. How long did it take the U.S. to take Iraq in 2003? Not that it should or would, but do you think the U.S. would fight Ukraine so closely to a draw for over two years? Of course not. And you can argue that it was merely Biden’s surrogates who were responsible for the SWIFT sanctions immediately imposed on Russia to debilitate their economy, but the fact is it still happened under Biden’s watch, so I don’t care “who” did it but rather that it was done. I have to think any sitting U.S. president would have reacted swiftly in this manner (pun intended).

And perhaps the most logical geopolitical fear to have under Biden was the idea that China would sense weakness and seize an opportunity to invade Taiwan. However, this never materialized, and now China is facing a deep, generational depression much worse than the U.S. experienced in 2008. China may not be “finished”, but I predict they will face a lost decade (or two) much like Japan is just now starting to emerge from. Outside of any potential geopolitical escalation, things look pretty darn good right now in the U.S. Wage growth and jobs are strong, corporate earnings are quite impressive, and inflation is finally trending down.

But inflation, you say? Oh yes, everyone’s favorite economic topic now. I cannot stress how much of a coincidence inflation is to political leadership. The Federal Reserve dictates monetary policy, and given the backdrop of COVID-19, dropping interest rates to 0%, and stimulating the economy, inflation at some point was inevitable and its presence is politically agnostic (but go ahead and blame Trump for overstimulating during Covid or Biden for not curbing the stimulation sooner). Presently, inflation has already been reigned in to the point where the Fed is going to start cutting interest rates next week (the Fed cuts interest rates when inflation becomes less of a concern). But inflation is all in the eyes of the beholder - people see what they want to see when it comes to politics. Whichever president wins in November will claim victory for the inevitable disinflation that will occur in the coming months. Even if some of the cited inflation exists more in theory than reality for many people. Random thoughts from personal experience: If you don’t like grocery prices, 1.) shop at Walmart, Costco, or Aldi, and 2.) stop buying the items experiencing the most inflation. They will eventually come back down if you are patient. Some already have.

And here’s another final thought on the economy. The stock market soared under Trump. Yes, it crashed at the beginning of 2020 for unexpected reasons, but it also recovered and even made new highs before Trump left office, so Trump undoubtedly left behind a strong stock market. Biden came in and the market soared even higher in 2021. Then it tanked in 2022 before recovering in 2023 and 2024 and is presently approaching new all-time highs. Under BOTH presidents, the stock market has continuously made new highs. Yet, I constantly see articles and pundits cherry-pick (for both Biden and Trump) their data about how the market did good under one president and poorly under another. Don’t let politics interfere with your investing mentality. I’ve written about this topic not too long ago.

For as long as any of us have been alive, someone has talked about the deficit and how it is a problem. Here’s a novel idea - maybe it’s not a problem. Nixon did away with the Gold Standard in 1971. It’s time to move on because things are different now. In hindsight, I believe Nixon’s move ranks right up there with Mal Moore’s hiring of Nick Saban in terms of an absolute power move that changed the course of history. Sure, if we were a household or a corporation running a balance sheet the way the U.S. government does, it would either be bankrupt or indicted for fraud. But that’s not how the U.S. Government works. The U.S. government is backed by the world reserve currency (USD), the taxing authority of the IRS, and the might of the U.S. military. If you think the U.S. is badly in debt, you should look at the relative financials of the other nations of the world and think about how we are relative to other nations. This isn’t something I can simply cite in a source… it’s critical thinking.

I am not here to tell you what to think or how to vote. I learned a long time ago that type of commentary is pointless. This election, like many before it, may pour salt into our wounded feelings, highlight our country’s askew morals, and upset a lot of people who didn’t get their way for some reasons that are completely understandable, regardless of political ideology. But none of the aforementioned reasons support any thesis that this is the end or the beginning of the end of America’s global hegemony. It just isn’t something we’re going to witness in our lifetime unless we are lucky enough to witness longevity escape velocity (I’ll save that discussion for another day).