I am by no means going to write about how I think this Alabama team is great or deserves anything other than what they have coming to them at this point. However, I do think that the way we view this Alabama team is a lot like the way we’d view a stock that is priced to perfection. What do I mean? Look at a great company like Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, or Apple. . . if they don’t crush earnings and give out phenomenal forward guidance expectations, it’s the end of the world. We just expect things to always be stellar for these blue-chip juggernauts. One bad quarter and the narrative becomes they’ve lost their touch . . . the run is over . . . the competition has caught up with them. It happened to Netflix earlier this year. It’s happening to Amazon now. It’s also happening to Alabama football. One bad game and the story lines pile up about speculation over the dynasty being dead. But let’s take a step back and look at the big picture.

Alabama certainly has issues compared to past Alabama teams. They struggle – or choose not to – run the ball with the same authority as Alabama teams of the past. Joyless murder ball appears, by all means, to be a nostalgic memory of the past. Trips inside the red zone are not ending in a touchdown like we are so accustomed to seeing. Procedural penalties are piling up like never before. The offensive and defensive coordinators have never been under as much fire. And, considering how I too pegged this team to be among the greatest in college football history at the beginning of the season, it’s safe to say this team has disappointed massively. Before the season started, I would say this team checked all of the boxes of what you would expect to see of an all-time great college football team: they came up just short in 2021 (motivation), had a large cohort of returning starters (experience), had the reigning Heisman trophy winner (star talent), and had a slew of incoming transfers that would bolster an already loaded team. To see one of the most underachieving seasons of the Saban era is disappointing, to say the least.

After the Texas game, I remarked that this team blew its chance at GOAT status because they really should have lost to a team that didn’t even have their starting QB. There was no way that game should have been won just 20-19. What happened to the offense? After the near-death experience with Texas A&M, I remarked that this team is really starting to disappoint because after all of the off-season back and forth with Jimbo Fisher, an Alabama team of old would have hung nearly 50 on them in the first half at Bryant-Denny Stadium – Bryce Young or not. Every piece of motivation was there to go out and absolutely destroy the Aggies, yet this team failed to deliver on both sides of the ball. This team has shown multiple times that they just don’t have it. They’re literally three plays away from being 5-5 on the year. Guess what? The truth is, it’s completely normal to play competitive games and not blow everyone out. Most championship teams in most seasons don’t blow everyone out. They have close wins, setbacks, and bounce-backs. But the standard has been set so high at Alabama that it isn’t even all about the two losses, I believe. It’s more about the fact that so many teams have been able to hang with Alabama this season. Had Texas and Texas A&M been the blowout wins everyone expected, the Tennessee and LSU losses would be less intolerable. I’m not saying people wouldn’t be disappointed, but the feelings that the dynasty is slipping probably wouldn’t be as strong. However, in tough times we tend to focus more on the negative and lose sight of the big picture.

Consider this. Bryce Young delivers when he’s asked to on the road at Texas. Later on, playing without Young, the Tide lean on their defense to shut down an extremely motivated and talented Texas A&M team that had yet to see its season collapse. On the road at Tennessee, the Tide rally and dominate the Volunteers late, sealing the game with a big interception by Kool-Aid McKinstry (because the interception isn’t wiped out by a questionable pass interference call). On the road at LSU, Bryce Young doesn’t throw an uncharacteristic interception in the end zone on an otherwise beautiful opening drive. Alabama dominates impressively on the road, setting up a 1 vs 2 revenge showdown with a Georgia team that is a Jameson Williams injury away from still being viewed as the team that just can’t beat Alabama. If only alternative realities existed.

Is this Alabama team perfect? No, they struggle to run the ball at times and have inconsistent wide receivers. The play-calling, according to most fans, isn’t very creative. Ironically, while most nostalgic Alabama fans look back and wish for the play-calling days of Steve Sarkisian, it is curious to note that the grass hasn’t been any greener in Austin, TX. On the other hand, Alabama is relatively healthy and has a defense that can shut teams down when it needs to. So. . . is this team really that bad? No, of course not. But because we’re so used to seeing near-perfection, we’ve trained ourselves to feel that the sky is falling when things don’t go exactly as we have come to expect them to. It’s unfortunate, but it is also human nature. You can call the fans entitled and blame them for being conditioned to expect success. It also happened to USC under Pete Carroll and Florida under Urban Meyer - expectations become so high that anything less than total domination is a disappointment. It’s truly a testament to how good this program is that two last-second losses feel like the end of the world. Virtually every other fan base on earth would kill to trade places with Alabama fans, who know this but just don’t care. Again, it’s human nature.

LSU’s victory over Arkansas all but ensures Alabama’s elimination from the College Football Playoff. Then again, stranger things have happened. Alabama still has a 14.5% chance of making the playoff. How??? While anything is possible, I’ll give you the most realistic scenario:

1. USC needs to slip up against either Notre Dame, UCLA, or in the Pac-12 title game. USC winning out seems highly unlikely.

2. Michigan needs lose to Illinois this weekend and again to Ohio State next weekend or get completely embarrassed by Ohio State (which happens about half the time they visit Columbus). If you think a one-loss Michigan is a lock over Alabama - or TCU for that matter - take a look at how bad their resume is.

3. TCU needs to remember that it’s TCU (FPI gives them a 51% chance of beating 6-4 Baylor this weekend and the line is only 2.5).

4. South Carolina or North Carolina beating Clemson would be helpful. An Alabama or Clemson debate probably favors Clemson (“they won their conference!”), although I believe Alabama has a case because of the way Notre Dame mauled Clemson just two weeks ago.

Your top four would then be: 1. Georgia (13-0) 2. Ohio State (13-0) 3. Tennessee (11-1) 4. Alabama (10-2)

Undoubtedly, this is a lot that needs to happen. Do I think it will? Of course not - I’d give is about 15% chance (lol). But, to quote Lloyd Christmas in Dumb and Dumber: So you’re telling me there’s a chance!