Chaos Theory: analyzing alabama’s playoff odds
A week ago I wrote about the fact that Alabama had a 14.5% chance to get into the College Football Playoff. While those odds have dropped to just over 12% after another wild week of College Football, I believe the Tennessee loss to South Carolina was beyond huge for Alabama. Going into last Saturday, there appeared to be a maximum of one spot up for grabs in the playoff. Georgia and the winner of Ohio State / Michigan were undoubtedly in. Tennessee, given that there appeared no more teams left to trip them up, appeared destined to be the next team in if TCU stumbled or the committee was not impressed with Michigan in a loss to Ohio State. This really only left one spot up for grabs in the seemingly infinite number of scenarios we could fantasize about.
In all of the scenarios that I regarded as realistic, Tennessee losing to South Carolina was not even among them. This upset has changed the playoff picture completely. It has opened up a second spot that is really up for grabs at this point. Georgia, even if they lose to LSU, is going to make the playoffs. Could they lose to Georgia Tech and LSU? Theoretically, a giant meteor is more likely to crash into Bryant-Denny stadium during the Iron Bowl, so I’m not getting into that what-if. The winner of Ohio State and Michigan is in. Could the winner of the Ohio State - Michigan game lose the Big Ten title game? Yes, but I think they would be treated like Georgia and only fall a spot or two. We don’t even know who is going to win the Big Ten West, and quite frankly, I couldn’t care any less to dive into those scenarios because whoever it is will almost certainly get smacked down by Ohio State (or Michigan).
So, here’s what we have so far:
Georgia (beats LSU - they are a 15.5-point favorite already)
Ohio State (beats Michigan - the question here is by how much)
Open
Open
My question is this: With two spots pretty much wide open (and given that TCU, LSU, and UCS are all far from certain to win out), why are sportsbooks pulling Alabama from the national championship betting market? Vegas insider tracks well-known sportsbooks from all around and none of them offer wagers on Alabama as of November 23rd (see below). That’s odd. Typically, teams that have little to no shot are on the board to take money from suckers. Does Oregon have a realistic shot to make the playoffs? Yes, but it would take help. Can they win it all in a field that would require them to beat Georgia and Ohio State? Absolutely not.
These odds don’t necessarily indicate who will or won’t make the playoff. Making the playoff is much different than winning it. TCU has a good chance to make the playoff, but there’s virtually no way they win it. Still, the futures market is a great indicator of who is left in contention. Here’s something more puzzling: last week, I was able to bet on Alabama at 200-1 odds (see below) through Bovada (this is legal, in case you wondered). I was only allowed to bet $20 because the risk for the sportsbook is so high at those odds. I think Bovada oddsmakers figured they were mostly taking my money. Now, I think they’ve had enough of Alabama and are tapping out because the bet is no longer offered. Simply put: I think Sportsbooks are scared of Alabama and have had enough of crazy people like me betting on them. If Alabama makes the playoffs, unlike many pretenders (TCU, USC, Clemson), they are capable of winning the whole thing.
Now, let’s take a look at all of the remaining teams in order of FPI probability to make the playoffs and see what must happen for Alabama to get in:
#1 Georgia (98.7%) - I’ll make this simple: They’re in. Even if LSU pulls off an upset for the ages they’re in. If LSU does win, you can forget everything else I am about to write because it won’t matter. Fortunately, LSU isn’t beating Georgia in Atlanta.
#2 Ohio State (96.3%) / #3 Michigan (80.9%) - Basically, the odds say they’re both in. The only way this doesn’t happen is if one (cough *Michigan * cough) gets blown out. Given how poor their resume is, I don’t think Michigan is safe with a bad loss. If it came down to Michigan with an ugly loss vs. Alabama for the final spot, I’d say that debate is pretty much a toss-up that will come down to selection Sunday.
#4 TCU (56%) - It’s an indictment of TCU’s legitimacy that they have a 100% chance of making it if they win out, but only a 56% chance of actually winning out. While I wouldn’t expect Iowa State to beat TCU this weekend, Iowa State’s defense will give them a chance of making it a low-scoring game where anything can happen. Iowa State has helped Alabama in this moment before, so we can’t disregard their chances. More likely, however, is TCU falling to Kansas State (or Texas) in the Big 12 title game. There’s a scenario where TCU loses to Iowa State and rebounds in the Big 12 title game to re-enter the discussion. For the good of college football, let’s hope TCU yields its spot to a legitimate contender so we do not have to witness another New Year’s Eve CFP semifinal blowout.
#8 Clemson (30.5%) - The media is already hyping up Clemson to be the next team in should someone stumble. Never mind the fact that Notre Dame exposed them just three weeks ago. Imagine what Georgia would do to them. Pundits are desperate for a more “deserving” ACC Champion Clemson to get in over a better Alabama team. I’m not going to get into how good Alabama is or isn’t relative to past Alabama teams, but on a neutral site, Alabama is at least a touchdown favorite. Regardless, Clemson will undoubtedly get in over Alabama if they win out. Clemson needs to lose to South Carolina (increasingly possible) or North Carolina to be eliminated from the playoff hunt.
#6 USC (14.5%) - Much like Clemson, the media is really hyping USC. If they win out, I believe they’d get in over the loser of Ohio State - Michigan in most scenarios. They’d also get in over a one-loss Clemson. So, why is their probability so low? I believe this due to having a pair of toss-up games remaining on their schedule. Notre Dame is really hot and has a great chance to knock off the Trojans this weekend. USC then has a Pac-12 championship game against Oregon (unless the Ducks stumble against Oregon State). Unfortunately, either team that wins that game with two losses still has an argument of getting into the playoff over Alabama.
#7 Alabama (12.3%) - It’s pretty simple. Alabama needs to take care of Auburn in the Iron Bowl. A struggle win would hurt their case. Excluding Cam Newton's sorcery, Auburn has lost every game to Nick Saban in Bryant-Denny Stadium by double digits.
#5 LSU (6.9%) - In my opinion, the pundits on ESPN waste a lot of air time talking about the scenario where LSU beats Georgia. It’s just so unlikely (6.9%???), and there are more scenarios worth exploring with a much greater probability of occurring. Brian Kelly has done a great job (coach of the year, in my opinion), but they aren’t there yet. Georgia will knock them out of this debate, once and for all. And just like that, Alabama will not have to worry about the head-to-head losses against Tennessee and LSU.
#10 Tennessee (2.1%) - I’ll be honest, I don’t see a path here for Tennessee. Alabama is clearly ahead of them in the pecking order. They need Alabama to get all of the scenarios we’re laying out. . . and then lose the Iron Bowl. . . and then some more things probably have to happen for Tennessee to enter the discussion. Without Hendon Hooker, there would be a (deservedly so) conspiracy to keep Tennessee out of the playoff. Fortunately, the whole “Tennessee beat Alabama head-to-head” thing is dead now.
#9 Oregon (1%) - It’s absurd that Tennessee has a greater chance of making the CFP than Oregon. To make things simple, they need what Alabama needs. The debate would then be a two-loss conference champion Oregon vs. a two-loss Alabama. Working against Oregon is the fact that Georgia completely embarrassed them. Would the committee hold a 49-3 loss against Oregon and try to avoid a rematch? No one can say for sure. It would be best if Oregon State knocked off Oregon this weekend so we never have this debate.
#11 Penn State (.4%) - They are behind Tennessee in the pecking order, so this clearly makes no sense to me. There’s a chance Tennessee throws it in and loses to Vanderbilt. But that doesn’t really change anything because Tennessee isn’t even in the mix.
#17 North Carolina (0%) - With only two losses, I don’t see how they are 100% out of the picture. If they beat Clemson convincingly, could they jump Alabama? Stranger things have happened. It would be nice if they lost to NC State this weekend for some extra insurance. Then, if they beat Clemson, the ACC would be completely eliminated from the discussion. Most likely, Alabama would get in over North Carolina, but it is too hard to rule anything out with absolute certainty.
#13 Washington (0%) - It’s possible they sneak in but they need help. Oregon must fall to Oregon State (very possible) and either UCLA or Utah needs to drop a game this weekend (unlikely). Would they jump Alabama with a big win over USC? I’d say their resume looks a lot better than North Carolina’s, so it is certainly possible.
Alabama’s path to the playoffs comes down to getting 5 out of these 6:
Michigan needs to get blown out by Ohio State (~20% chance)
USC needs to lose this weekend to Notre Dame OR Oregon needs to lose to Oregon State (~65% chance)
Clemson needs to lose to South Carolina OR the ACC title game to North Carolina (~50% chance)
TCU needs to lose to Iowa State or the Big 12 Title Game against Kansas State or Texas (~40 chance)
LSU needs to lose to Texas A&M or Georgia in the SEC Championship game (~90% chance)
The Pac 12 champion needs to have 2+ losses (~60%)
Remember, because there are two spots available, one of these above teams can get into the playoffs and there would still be room for Alabama. If all six events occur, it’s actually possible that Alabama could get the #3 seed and play Ohio State.
A two-loss conference champion such as Oregon or North Carolina has a case to make over Alabama. However, if there are multiple two-loss conference champions in the debate from the Pac-12 and the ACC, the picture becomes muddled. Do you take one of the two-loss conference champions over the other? Do you take a one-loss team that didn’t win their conference like Michigan or TCU? Or, do you take a two-loss team like Alabama that is the best team but also the least deserving? For this playoff scenario to work out for Alabama, things need to be about as clear as mud on selection Sunday.
